progressive cyberdadaism from our nation’s capital
Just for a second, I’d like to pick on Turkana at The Left Coaster (apologies in advance. It’s not personal, just business.). There’s two representative misconceptions in this post, which I’d like to address.
While Obama supporters continue to tout The Math, they continue to ignore the fact that Obama cannot win the nomination on pledged delegates. Once again, repeat after me: the superdelegates will decide the nomination.
The primary system, like any contest, is a mechanism designed to measure the will of the people. The rules of the contest, some of which are contrived, must be agreed on in advance for the contest to be fair. The expected results, or The Math, as Turkana puts it (referring to a Karl Rove subterfuge when the House was hopelessly lost by the Republicans), shows that at the end of the primary process Obama will have the plurality of votes. How then, do we decide the contest if the plurality is less than a majority? Turkana argues that the popular vote should be the deciding factor:
The pledged delegate metric is only one, and because Clinton cannot catch Obama in that metric, her entire argument rests on the possibility of her ending up with the most popular votes. That’s a reasonable argument, and one that the uncommitted superdelegates are clearly willing to listen to.
But there was no method agreed on in advance to count popular votes. How do caucus results count? How do states count where no contest was held? How should the delegate count be weighed against any method used to estimate the popular vote?
Let’s say for a second that there was a clear way to obtain the popular vote. Would the Clinton campaign say “Well, you’ve got us there. We really have lost this one.” Or, would they move on to some other criteria?
The good news for Obama, in the long campaign, is that all the bad news has now been aired. As Joan Walsh and others have pointed out, better now than in October. Rezko’s at trial, we’ve seen the Wright videos, we’ve heard the name Ayers, we’ve looked aghast at Obama’s flagless lapel.
There is a misconception that Clinton is doing us all a service by smearing Obama. The reasoning goes that this gets it out of the way now, so that the Republicans can’t use it in the general. Clinton, on the other hand, has already been smeared by the Right for years, so there isn’t any public good served by bringing up unsavory points in her past. There isn’t even a negative context that hasn’t been explored, so the argument goes.
Unfortunately Clinton’s supporters underestimate the degree which the right despises both her and her husband. Republicans I’ve known over the years would rather eat glass than see her elected to the presidency. As an example of relatively unexplored topics consider this from an article in The Nation by Tom Hayden:
Most significantly in terms of her recent attacks on Barack, after Yale law school, Hillary went to work for the left-wing Bay Area law firm of Treuhaft, Walker and Burnstein, which specialized in Black Panthers and West Coast labor leaders prosecuted for being communists. Two of the firm’s partners, according to Treuhaft, were communists and the two others “tolerated communists”. Then she went on to Washington to help impeach Richard Nixon, whose career was built on smearing and destroying the careers of people through vague insinuations about their backgrounds and associates. (All these citations can be found in Carl Bernstein’s sympathetic 2007 Clinton biography, A Woman in Charge.)
All these were honorable words and associations in my mind, but doesn’t she see how the Hillary of today would accuse the Hillary of the sixties of associating with black revolutionaries who fought gun battles with police officers, and defending pro-communist lawyers who backed communists? Doesn’t the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, whom Hillary attacks today, represent the very essence of the black radicals Hillary was associating with in those days? And isn’t the Hillary of today becoming the same kind of guilt-by-association insinuator as the Richard Nixon she worked to impeach?
You don’t think the regular suspects on the Right will read Bernstein’s book looking for dirt? The reason that these kind of smears haven’t been used by the Obama campaign is that this is precisely the kind of behavior that has turned off so many of us to politics. The Right-Wing Freak Show? Not so much.
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hip·po·pot·a·mus n. A notion, perhaps distinct from conventional wisdom, that needs to be verified by reality-based scrutiny.
95. Cogito cogito ergo cogito sum (I think that I think, therefore I think that I am.)
— Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary
Some speculate the Senator Clinton would want the spirit-killing Vice Presidency because she would be willing to wait for two terms so as to be the likely nominee in 2012. I believe that she could well contemplate this scenario. [Link]
A subsequent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that gas prices fell by 3 percent, meaning that only three fifths of the savings from reduced taxes was passed on to consumers. [Link]
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is filing a complaint with the IRS today challenging the conservative group Freedom's Watch status as a non-profit. [Link]
For Barbara, Hillary has become the screech on the blackboard. From First Lady to Lady Macbeth. [Link]
So what's changed? I asked Reich. "I saw the ads" — the negative man-on-street commercials that the Clinton campaign put up in Pennsylvania in the wake of Obama's bitter/cling comments a week ago — "and I was appalled, frankly. [Link]
Otherwise cites other (mostly right-wing) writers, adding a few words—or one word (usually heh, indeed, or ouch)—to denote approval. This style is, probably purposely, hard to engage. [Link]
Before you tie 'em, you have to lace 'em — and you can choose from among 43,200 perfectly legitimate ways to do it. [Link]
“He doesn’t have the appearance of a tax-and-spend liberal . . . but if the essence of being a tax-and-spend liberal is a lot of taxes and spending, that’s what he comes down to.” [Link]
Before an audience of liberal bloggers last fall, Hillary Clinton defended Washington’s advocate class. “A lot of those lobbyists, whether you like it or not, represent real Americans. They actually do,” she said. [Link]
As things currently stand, it appears that the 39 delegates from DC will include 19 Obama supporters and 14 Clinton supporters. The positions of the remaining 6 — the 4 undeclared DNC members and the 2 add-ons — are unknown. [Link]
But to understand what Obama is proposing, it's important to ask: What, exactly, is the mind-set that led to the war? What will it mean to end it? And what will take its place? [Link]
Clinton's prayer group was part of the Fellowship (or "the Family"), a network of sex-segregated cells of political, business, and military leaders dedicated to "spiritual war" on behalf of Christ, many of them recruited at the Fellowship's only public ev [Link]
"It's quite clear that the Bush administration officials who were around in the 1970s are settling old scores now," said Tim Sparapani, senior legislative counsel to the American Civil Liberties Union. [Link]
Raelyn Campbell has a wild story. She bought a computer at Best Buy. It malfunctioned. She took it back to be repaired. They apparently lost it -- lied about it -- and lied about it -- and lied about it -- and then. . .lied about it. [Link]
When Feinstein pressed, Johnson admitted that "I don't know the answer to that," but offered he himself is working on it, determining "what are the next steps." [Link]
All of this might suggest that the new Executive Order was designed to prevent the IOB from re-emerging as an effective oversight body under a future president. [Link]
What about Congressman Darrell Issa of California? ("`Isa&quo~ means Jesus in Arabic). Former cabinet secretary Donna Shalala? (Shalala means "waterfall&~ in Arabic). [Link]
The filmmaker who won an Academy Award Sunday night for best documentary is next turning his attention to the Jack Abramoff scandal, including GOP presidential candidate John McCain’s role in investigating the affair. [Link]
Today, the House has just approved H.Res. 982, which provides for the adoption of H.Res. 979, recommending that the House of Representatives find Harriet Miers, former White House Counsel, and Joshua Bolten, the White House Chief of Staff, in contempt of [Link]
Looking at Clinton’s statements during critical moments in the war underscores her obscurantism on the most important issue of U.S. national security—a stance that makes sense only in the related contexts of strategic confusion and political expedienc [Link]
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April 24th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Turkana is saying that an argument Clinton can make to the SD’s is that she won the popular count. Of course, given the system, there’s no way to get that number exactly but she only needs to make the case to enough SD’s that she is more electable than Obama so she doesn’t need exact numbers.
Let’s say for a second that there was a clear way to obtain the popular vote. Would the Clinton campaign say “Well, you’ve got us there. We really have lost this one.” Or, would they move on to some other criteria?
Absolutely and so would Obama, as we should expect.
The reason that these kind of smears haven’t been used by the Obama campaign is that this is precisely the kind of behavior that has turned off so many of us to politics.
I think you give the Obama campaign too much credit. They don’t use those arguments b/c they don’t advance his cause. They’ve used plenty of dirty campaign tactics and right wing smears. It’s strange to me that the idea that he’s a saint has taken such deep root.
What concerns me most about both of these candidates is not that they are fighting hard now but that they will not fight remotely as hard against the GOP and the corporate establishment once they’re elected. That and that in my heart, I don’t believe that either one is electable, but I work to repress those feelings along with what I know about electronic voting machines in order to get through another day.
April 24th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Turkana appears to me to be making the argument that the popular vote should be the deciding factor since neither candidate will reach a majority. I’m saying that the argument doesn’t make sense because using the popular vote is after the fact, and something you’d have to estimate. And that estimate is open for debate.
If the situation were reversed, I’d expect Obama to conceed. I would be vocally requesting that he do so. A second alternative would be to play out the rest of the primaries as Huckabee did, without attacking the front-runner.
I don’t think Obama’s a saint. I do think that his base would be turned off if he went negative. Obama, after all, can run for Prez again, but not if he loses his base.
I don’t really have enough information to say whether either candidate would be fighting the corporate establishment in the way we need them to. The problem is that while the electorate is fighting about who wears a flag pin, or what posture they use when saying the pledge of allegience, real issues of executive power and constitutional abuse go unheeded.
What we need is an educated electorate. One that would refuse to listen to arguments taken out of context, or fear mongering, or purely bogus statistics. An electorate that takes as much time reviewing the articles in their daily paper as they do researching which flat panel TV they should buy.
April 25th, 2008 at 12:07 am
I do think that his base would be turned off if he went negative.
But he has gone negative - plenty of times. eRiposte has catalogued a long list of other examples.
Turkana appears to me to be making the argument that the popular vote should be the deciding factor since neither candidate will reach a majority. I’m saying that the argument doesn’t make sense because using the popular vote is after the fact, and something you’d have to estimate. And that estimate is open for debate.
I still read it to say that the popular vote could be an argument HRC uses to sway the SDs - exact numbers aren’t needed for that. It all goes into the big electability question, which, as far as I’ve heard, is what most of the SDs think about when deciding.
The problem is that while the electorate is fighting about who wears a flag pin, or what posture they use when saying the pledge of allegience, real issues of executive power and constitutional abuse go unheeded.
I don’t know any real person who is fighting about that. Everyone I talk to is thinking about electability. The peace activists I know were upset by HRC’s “obliterate Iran” talk, but concede that it probably got her votes. People who voted for her like her b/c she talks about solving problems and discusses solutions. A few people have told me that they like that she’s a fighter. People who voted for Barack couldn’t tell me what policies of his they liked but thought he’d be an effective change agent. They also think he’ll bring out the youth and build the party.
Three times someone who saw my Hillary button and asked me about the election told me that Obama is a Muslim and that they couldn’t vote for someone who goes to a church that hates America. Those were depressing conversations.
What we need is an educated electorate.
Now don’t go getting all elitist. While I am definitely pro-education, even an educated American electorate would be easy to lead to war. An educated electorate is no guarantee that they’d come down against stuff like the FISA fixes and in favor of preserving the Constitution. Most of the people who consistently vote for lower taxes and kill-the-poor econ policies are plenty educated. We need a less fearful and more compassionate electorate.