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June 1, 2005

ExxonMobil: Peak Oil in Five Years Save Template Changes.

by kim @ 1:42 pm. Filed under Uncategorized

This may be the biggest news I’ve read today (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists):

Without any press conferences, grand announcements, or hyperbolic advertising campaigns, the Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world’s largest publicly owned petroleum companies, has quietly joined the ranks of those who are predicting an impending plateau in non-OPEC oil production. Their report, The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View, forecasts a peak in just five years.

That’s a stark admission. ExxonMobil, like most energy companies had been painting a rosey scenario of virtually infinite resources. Significantly, this is not a situation we can produce our way out of. The article continues (emphasis mine):

With non-OPEC oil production reaching a plateau and frontier resources not viable, ExxonMobil proposes that increased demand be met in two ways. The first is greater fuel efficiency. (That alone should convey the seriousness of this report: When have you ever heard a petroleum company make a plea for vehicles that use less gas?) New cars in the United States are expected to go 38 miles on a gallon of gas in 2030, instead of the current value of 21 miles per gallon. This goal is actually quite modest, as new cars sold in Europe since 2003 already achieve 35 miles per gallon.

The other way ExxonMobil believes demand will be satisfied is from vastly and rapidly increased OPEC production: “After 2010, the call on OPEC increases quickly, requiring OPEC to add more than 1 MBD [million barrels per day] of capacity every year,” notes the Outlook. “OPEC’s resources are large enough to achieve this rate of expansion, and we expect that investments will be made in a timely manner.”

You’ll note that the suggested annual expansion is equivalent to the peak capacity of the Arctic reserve, about 1 MBD. Independence from foreign oil, my amphibious derriere.

You may also note that the “Energy Bill” that commander coocoo-bananas keeps talking about does nothing towards making cars more efficient (I might also point out that CAFE standards have been frozen since the Gingrich revolution, the Republic take-over of Congress. I’m not saying there’s a cause/effect relationship there, but I’m not saying there isn’t either.)

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